GV249 Seminar AT7: Measurement

Lennard Metson

2024-11-19

Causal inference recap

Explain the following terms:

  • Potential outcome
    • How many does an individual have?
  • Counterfactual
  • \(Y_i^1\)
  • \(Y_i^0\)
  • \(Y_i^0[D_i=1]\)
    • (explain?!)
  • What is the fundamental problem of causal inference?
  • (Broadly) how do we try to solve it?
  • \(Y_i^1\) - \(Y_i^0\)
  • ATE
  • ATT

📏 Measurement

🤔 Why measure our mission?

Key reading

Bueno de Mesquita & Fowler - Thinking Clearly with Data - Chs 15-16.

  • Teaching to the test
  • External validity
  • Measurement choices might lead to strategic behaviour

☑️ Types of validity

  • Face: Degree to which the measure makes intuitive sense (relying on what you know about the concept)
  • Content: Degree to which a measure represents all critical dimensions of a given concept.
  • Construct: Degree to which the concept is related to other measures that it is supposed to be related to
  • External: Degree to which the measure is generalisable across contexts (e.g., across countries, populations, physical settings).

🤔 What makes a measurement good?

  • Validity

  • Reliability: the degree to which a measure is consistent (stable and accurate) and reproducible

  • Like theory, a measurement is good when it does the job we want it to!

  • Bueno de Mesquita and Fowler (2021): when it measures our mission!

📏 Adcock and Collier’s framework

Key reading

Adcock & Collier (2001) - “Measurement Validity: A Shared Standard for Qualitative and Quantitative Research”

📏 Adcock and Collier’s framework

Common measurement challenges

  • Desirability bias
  • Hawthorne/experimenter demand effects
  • Unrepresentative samples
  • Attrition

Let’s try to solve social desirability bias

📋 List experiments

  • Imagine a researcher wants to know how many students use ChatGPT in their assignments
  • What happens if I just ask?
  • Let’s try it…

📋 List experiments

  • Many survey respondents answer sensitive questions in a misleading way because they fear social (or other) consequences of admitting something.
  • But we can use list experiments to measure the % people use ChatGPT without requiring any one individual to disclose whether they do.
  • We randomly divide our sample into two lists—one has one option more than the other.
  • We then estimate the ATE of being given the option.

📋 List experiments

📋 List experiments

  • Thinking back to last week’s topic—what is the fundamental problem of causal inference?
    • We cannot know how many an individual would have chosen had they been in the other group.
    • We cannot know at the individual level whether they would have chosen the option of interest.
  • What’s our solution to not being able to compare individuals?
    • Comparing the mean of our two groups!

📋 List experiments

You can also access the survey by clicking on this link or pasting it into your browser: https://lse.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_0ONZfm78WbSrNNI.

Bringing us onto a second type of bias…

  • Was telling you exactly how the study works and what I’m trying to tell you the best way of conducting this survey?

  • Probably not!

    • You might have wanted to help me with the demonstration by pretending to have used ChatGPT
    • Or you might not have really trusted that I can’t solve the fundamental problem of causal inference and thought this was a trap!

Measurement “problems” can be measurement opportunities

  • Sometimes we can measurement “problems” as an opportunity to measure concepts of interest.
  • This is especially true for research about social norms and social stigma.

Measuring social norms

Ch. 4 of Valentim (2024):

Measuring social norms

References

Bueno de Mesquita, Ethan, and Anthony Fowler. 2021. Thinking Clearly with Data: A Guide to Quantitative Reasoning and Analysis. Princeton Oxford: Princeton University Press.
Valentim, Vicente. 2024. The Normalization of the Radical Right: A Norms Theory of Political Supply and Demand. 1st ed. New York: Oxford University Press.